Retail sales began rising before the recession “officially” ended in June 2009 and have been up in 25 of the last 29 months. In August, total sales were 2.4 percent higher than the pre-recession peak.

The U.S. economy may be experiencing the “briar patch syndrome,” a condition in which the economy, despite moving forward, is behind where it was and, cet. par., less than it would have been.

As the Federal Government has moved closer to its statutory debt ceiling (i.e., the total amount it may legally borrow), concern has grown as to the practical implications for businesses and households if policymakers fail to timely increase the limit.

As the recovery from the “Great Recession” approached its second anniversary, a spate of economic indicators fell short of consensus expectations, including jobs growth, business sentiment.

The employment report for April was generally positive, with the private sector adding jobs for the 14^th consecutive month. Those gains were, however, partially offset by public sector cutbacks.

Personal income rose for the 17th consecutive month in February. Even when adjusted for inflation, incomes exceed the pre-recession peak—with real after-tax incomes up 4.2%.

The job-loss recovery has finally ended! Which brings to mind the cartoon of a crawling turtle with a snail on its back exclaiming: “Wheeee!!!”

Patrick O’Keefe, J.H. Cohn’s director of economic research, discussed the February jobs report on CNBC on March 3.

Retail sales rose for the seventh consecutive month in January and, after having increased 14.8% from the cyclic bottom, are within a whisker of the pre-recession peak in November 2007.

Employment rose slightly in January, largely on private sector gains in manufacturing and business services which were partially offset by declines in construction and transportation and further shrinkage in the public sector.

The final round of 2010 economic data confirms it as a year of unfulfilled expectations. Although the recent data is mixed, it supports the view that conditions will continue to improve. 

The recovery from the 2008-09 recession has ended—happy new year!  It’s not official (i.e., the data have not been published), but at sometime in the past quarter, real Gross Domestic Product finally surpassed its pre-recession peak and shifted from rebounding to expanding. 

The Federal government has temporarily extended its current tax regime in a legislative compromise that also authorized inter alia investment incentives, reduced payroll taxes, and continued benefits for the long-term unemployed. 

Although much attention has been given to November’s “disappointing” performance, the monthly changes were largely numerical noise (i.e., were not statistically significant).  Further, technical factors (e.g., the timing of the survey) may have produced anomalies (e.g., a decline in retail employment) that will self-correct in subsequent months. 

Gross Domestic Product  grew for the fifth consecutive quarter since the contraction ended in mid-2009 according to the advance estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

The Federal Reserve has launched another round of quantitative easing (“QE) in response to a “disappointingly slow” recovery.

Despite 15 months of economic recovery, the U.S. has fewer jobs today than at the beginning of the century.  Compared to January 2000, private sector employment is down while public sector employment is up. 

Revised second quarter (Q-2) data indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  grew less than initially estimated, as expected.  The downward revision, which is based on more complete information, reflects a hefty increase in imports that surpassed gains in other components, including a robust increase in business investment. 

New home saleshit a recordkeeping low in July.  The end of eligibility for the Federal homebuyer tax credit in April has been blamed for the drop.  But does it deserve the credit? 

The coming week’s data on housing sales (new and existing) and a revised estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q-2) will most likely document further deceleration of the recovery.  And with each new release, concern about the likelihood of a “double-dip” (i.e., renewed economic contraction) will increase.

Retail sales rose modestly in July, partially reversing declines in the two previous months.  Compared to the cyclic low in March 2009, nominal sales are up 8.5%, but still below the pre-recession peak. 

The current recovery has frequently been described as “jobless.”  That is inaccurate.  Since the economy’s turnaround began mid-2009, real output has increased by about $400 billion – but employment has declined by some 400,000 jobs. 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate is that real Gross Domestic Product – the total output of goods and services adjusted for inflation – expanded at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter (Q-2) of 2010. 

Retail sales slipped in June for the second consecutive month, according to the Census Bureau.  Is the two-month lull a breath-catching pause or the beginning of the dreaded double dip? 

During the slow growth expansion of the first half of 2010, the labor market—like Alice in the Red Queen’s Race in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass—managed to run in place.In the second half of the year, expansion will fuel job growth but the number of unemployed will decline only slowly.

The economy’s schizophrenia was on display last month in the goods producing sectors as industrial output rose while housing starts tumbled.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) most recent jobs report calls to mind the 1980s hamburger commercial in which a tiny patty on a giant bun prompted the question: “Where’s the beef?” 

Later this week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q-1) of 2010; a final revision will issue in late June.  Although the revisions are more accurate, they are adjustments to the rear view mirror and shed little (if any) light on current conditions.

Economic recovery broadened in April as consumer spending and industrial activity both continued to increase.  Yet as the turmoil in Europe reminds, the economy may be out of the woods but financial conditions remain swampy

The U.S. economy added jobs, yet more people were unemployed in April. The pace of employment growth has been accelerating and its distribution broadening, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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In the first quarter (Q-1) of 2010, the U.S. economy notched its third consecutive quarterly gain as real (i.e., inflation adjusted) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 3.2%. 

The Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research recently announced that it cannot yet declare the recession’s end. This prompts two comments.

Employment rose in March for the third time in five months, up 162,000 jobs – the largest increase since March 2007 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  While welcome, the report merits only one cheer – and a quiet one at that – because the gains, while broad, were shallow and disproportionately temporary.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its third (and final) calculation of the economy’s performance in the last quarter (Q-4) of 2009.  It reports that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 5.6% notching its second consecutive quarterly gain and the largest in six years. 

The nation’s net worth rose 1.3% in the fourth quarter (Q-4) of 2009 according to the Federal Reserve. As a result of this third consecutive quarterly gain, Americans were 11.7% wealthier than when the financial meltdown ended in March 2009.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that in February, for the fifth consecutive month, employmentwas virtually unchanged (-0.3%) despite a blizzard in the East.  Two years of hemorrhaging jobs appears at an end.

Inconsistent, but generally sluggish, statistics for January have raised questions concerning the recovery’s sustainability.  While the disparate data confirm an economy on thin ice, they are consistent with projections for slow growth in 2010.

On signs of strengthening economic growth and improving financial conditions, the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its hair-of-the-dog approach to stabilizing an economy that had overdosed on debt.

Retail sales rose in January for the third time in four months and auto sales were virtually unchanged. Although consumers have gradually increased their spending, they remain cautious.

Despite finding that employment declined in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report confirms that the nation’s labor market has begun to recover.  Except for November’s employment increase, January’s drop was the smallest job loss in two years.

In the second half of 2009, the U.S. economy grew – but employment fell.  Is that  about to change?  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by an inflation-adjusted 5.7 % in 2009’s fourth quarter (Q-4).  This is according to the “advance” estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which will be revised twice as more complete data become available. 

Homebuilding continued to crawl out of the cellar in December with national activity surpassing the year-ago level for the first time since March 2006.
 

Although retail sales have exceeded year-ago levels for two consecutive months, 2009’s annual total was the lowest since 2005. Workers’ incomes explain the past and hold the key to the future.

Later this year when the National Bureau of Economic Research pronounces the recession over, it will designate November 2009 as the month in which it ended. Why?  Because after 22 months of job losses, employment rose in November. 

The expansion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter (Q-3) was less robust than originally estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  With more complete data in hand, BEA pegged growth at 2.2% – down from the initial estimate (+3.5%), but still superior to the prior four quarters of declining activity. 
 

In December 2007, the economy fell into the most pronounced and protracted downturn since the 1930s. The Grinch had stolen growth and it was not until the third quarter (Q-3) of 2009 that the bottom of the ensuing recession was in sight.

At the outset of a marathon, with all of the competitors in a pack, most runners are tentative – taking baby steps to avoid a stumble and injury.  You can’t win a marathon at the start; but you can lose it on a misstep.  Why risk the long-run goal in a premature sprint to the front of the pack?

Gross Domestic Product’s (GDP) 3.5% expansion in the third quarter (Q-3), the economy’s first positive performance in a year, prompted some to conclude that the Godot recovery has begun. That may be the hope, but does it reflect experience?

Employment fell in October for the 22nd consecutive month, but the rate of decline is slowing. The month-on-month drop (-190,000) was about one-quarter (25.6%) of January’s. While it exceeded the consensus forecast (i.e., the group guess), revised data for August and September indicated smaller losses than initially estimated.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, rose for the first time in a year according to the advance estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (The data will be revised twice in the coming months.)

From the business sector’s version of Field of Dreams: “If you make it, will they buy?” Industrial output grew smartly (+5.2%) in the third quarter (2009 Q-3), recording its first quarterly gain since a small blip in 2008 Q-1. The gains flow from a sustained increase in factory utilization rates, which has been driven to some considerable degree by the reopening of the nation’s auto plants.

Consumer spending, which has been moving steadily upward since bottoming in April, surged in August. The 5.8% gain in real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) spending was the largest monthly increase in almost eight years. Does this signal a longer-term shift?

In its final snapshot of the economy through June, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that gross domestic product (GDP)had declined by less than originally estimated. Is the stage set for a third quarter (Q-3) turnaround?

Americans’ net worth increased by 3.9% in the second quarter of 2009, after having declined for six consecutive quarters.

All the king’s horses, and all the king’s men, couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty together again. But what about the king’s Treasury and Federal Reserve? When the U.S. economy tumbled, Treasury promised to spend and the Fed pledged to lend until their Mr. Dumpty was on the mend. They have spent and lent. And, consequently, their Mr. Dumpty, while not yet mended, is less broken.

After rising for two months, national housing activity slowed slightly in July, as builders started construction on fewer new homes and obtained a smaller number of permits for future construction, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

At its August meeting, the Federal Reserve’s policy arm observed that “economic activity is leveling out” but “is likely to remain weak for a time.” Accordingly, it retained its commitment to low rates, high liquidity, and targeted lending, a policy that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke characterizes as “highly accommodative.”