Economic Notes: Homebuilding Moves Off Bottom
6/16/2009
By Patrick O'Keefe, Director of Economic Research, J.H. Cohn
Homebuilding activity picked up in May, as builders nationally started construction on 17.2% more units than in April. It appears that the bottom is in for builders.
Nonetheless, homebuilding remains at
historically low levels. In 50 years of recordkeeping, May ranks fourth from the bottom; those months that fall below it all occurred this year.
In part, May’s gain reflected the third consecutive increase in single family construction, which rose 7.5% in May. Single family starts are 12.3% higher than February’s bottom.
But most of the month’s rise (53.8%) was due to a surge in multifamily construction (up 77.1% in May), which was concentrated in the west and south. Unlike single family starts, multifamily housing activity had dropped in the previous two months.
Builders’ plans for future construction rose by 4% in May, but builders remain cautious about future market conditions. Compared to the first five months of 2008, planned housing construction is down 47.8%.
***
The statements, opinions, and conclusions contained herein are based solely upon the author’s own studies, research, and personal experience. Neither J.H. Cohn LLP nor the author makes any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. J.H. Cohn LLP and the author expressly disclaim any liability for any loss or damage which may be incurred, of any kind whatsoever, as a result of or arising from the use of any of the information contained herein or reliance on the accuracy or completeness of it.