Economic Notes: Save the Piggy Banks
2/03/2009
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, fell at an annual rate of 3.8% in the final quarter (Q-4) of 2008.
This is the largest decline since Q-1 1982 and the first time in 18 years that the U.S. economy contracted for two consecutive quarters.
The deceleration in economic activity was somewhat more pronounced than the headline number indicates. As sales slowed, inventories increased – which the national accounts record as a gain even though in current circumstances it is evidence of slack. The increase in inventories, coupled with a jump in Federal nondefense spending (+14.5%), offsets the weakness prevalent in most other components.
Advance estimates of GDP
reflect the significant shift in consumer attitudes that occurred over the course of 2008. Personal consumption expenditures fell by 3.5%, while the personal savings rate rose to 2.9% of after-tax income. In Q-4 2007, the savings rate was only 0.2%.
Nowhere was the economy’s retrenchment more evident than in the auto sector, where output dropped by 63.4%. Indeed, had it not been for the collapse in cars, GDP would have declined by a more modest (albeit significant) 1.8%.
While current-dollar paychecks were slimmer in the fourth quarter, purchasing power rose 3.3% due to a record drop (-5.5%) in the prices consumers pay.
This is certain to fan the Federal Reserve Board’s deflationary fears.
The Conference Board reports consumer confidence at historic lows. Is it any wonder? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment was up in all 50 states and employment dropped in 48. California has more unemployed than Connecticut has jobs.
Through Q-3 2008, households had seen their net worth drop by 11.1%. Since then, housing prices – often their primary asset – have continued to “freefall” (-18.2% y/y) according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index. This reflects the rising tide of foreclosures and distressed sales, which now account for some 45% of all transactions according to the National Association of Realtors
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Lower prices are stimulating resales, which were up 6.5% m/m. But new homesales hit yet another all-time low, falling 14.7% m/m in December. Builders have 13 months of inventory, which explains record-low housing starts.
Even as some segments of the credit market appear to be stabilizing, others wobble. Most recently: credit unions, whose $80 billion in previously uninsured deposits are now federally guaranteed. The move was prompted by a major wholesaler’s $1.1 billion in losses on mortgage backed securities.
Isn’t it about time for Uncle Sam to guarantee the kids' piggy banks? It’s only fair. They are sounder than Fannie Mae and cuter than Freddie Mac.
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